AI Boom Drives Global Trade Growth Despite Conflicts and Tariffs

The latest edition of the DHL Globalization Tracker, produced by DHL together with the NYU Stern School of Business, concludes that the boom in artificial intelligence infrastructure became the main driver of global trade in 2026, outweighing the effect of geopolitical conflicts and tariffs. According to the report, trade in AI-related goods, such as semiconductors and data transmission equipment, accounted for 42% of merchandise trade growth in 2025, and that share jumped to 76% during the first quarter of 2026.

The report notes that global trade in goods grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year period over the past 15 years, except for the post-pandemic rebound. This occurred despite the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which particularly affected economies dependent on that route: trade value fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited because the United States accounted for only 13% of world imports, and around half of those imports were exempt from the tariff hikes by August 2026.

The report raised its trade projections: average annual growth of 3.4% is expected through 2029, above the 2.7% recorded in the previous decade. East Asia and the Pacific led trade growth among all regions, with a 24% increase in trade value during the first five months of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, followed by Europe with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%. The region also increased the share of its trade that remains within the bloc itself, which rose from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026, driven by Asian supply chains feeding the AI boom.

The trade link between the United States and China weakened significantly: it accounted for 3.5% of world trade at its 2015 peak and fell to just 1.6% in the first five months of 2026, while their combined share of international business investment is below 1%. However, the report argues that this has not led to a global split in the economy, as close US allies have largely maintained their trade relations with China.

The phenomenon also transformed the logistics business: carriers such as FedEx, Kuehne+Nagel and Expeditors reported strong demand linked to semiconductors and AI infrastructure on the transpacific route, while DHL Supply Chain announced in March an expansion in North America with ten sites dedicated to data centers totaling more than seven million square feet. DHL Global Forwarding estimated that the data center logistics market will grow from about $23 billion in 2025 to at least $35 billion by 2030.