Asia-to-U.S. Container Rates Peak After Strait of Hormuz Crisis

Spot container freight rates from the Far East to the United States hit their post-2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis peak on October 1, according to Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand. Average rates rose 1.4% on the route to the West Coast, to $8,346 per FEU, and 0.7% to the East Coast, to $11,523 per FEU, although these levels are 344.2% and 334.7% higher, respectively, than those recorded before the crisis on February 28.

Sand explained that the slowdown in the rate increase is due to reduced port congestion in Asia as the typhoon season ends, as well as Golden Week and national holidays in China, which cut exports during the first week of October. According to the analyst, demand is not strong and rates have already peaked, but no collapse is expected; instead, shippers will have to keep paying elevated freight rates for the rest of the year.

Routes from the Far East to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean had peaked earlier and have been declining since the beginning of July. The price gap between the U.S. East and West Coasts widened to $3,177 per FEU, compared with about $772 before the Hormuz crisis, with the East Coast as the more expensive route. Xeneta projects that over the next three months, East Coast rates could range between $6,000 and $7,000 per FEU, and West Coast rates between $4,500 and $5,500 per FEU, which would imply a significant correction but not a collapse, although Sand warned that new disruptions or geopolitical conflicts could change the picture once again.

A week later, on October 7, rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast posted their first daily drop since mid-September, of just $2 per FEU, although they remained 1.1% above the September 30 level, at $8,336. Rates to the East Coast averaged $11,512 per FEU, up 0.5% week-on-week. Meanwhile, rates from Asia to the Mediterranean showed the sharpest decline since their July peak, with a cumulative drop of 43% since July 1, compared with 34% on the Northern Europe route, giving European shippers greater bargaining power during the annual contract negotiation season.