Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Drive Up Freight Rates and Oil and LNG Prices
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The armed conflict between the United States and Iran, which has affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb since late February 2026, worsened in the final days of September and early October with a series of attacks on merchant vessels. The Maritime Executive reported at least six attacks on tankers in a single week, while specialized outlets such as Safety4Sea and Trade News reported fresh strikes on the Saudi terminal at Yanbu, on the Red Sea, which had resumed loadings after the attack on the East-West pipeline in early September.
Vessel Attacks and Casualties
Maritime authorities identified several of the vessels attacked: the Kuwaiti tanker Al Funtas caught fire on September 28, and the following day the Mersin Prosperity, the Sinbad and the LNG carrier Al Ruwais were struck, according to UKMTO. Days later, the VLCC Kazimah III was hit on October 1 off the coast of Oman, and the Aframax Lipsi sustained engine room damage on October 4, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks. Intercargo, the bulk carrier association, highlighted the death of a crew member aboard the Cape Dao as a reminder of the human cost of these attacks, while NBC News revealed that eight U.S. Marines were wounded in a cruise missile strike on September 14 that had not previously been disclosed by the Pentagon.
Oil and LNG Prices on the Rise
Fuel prices reflected the tension: the average VLSFO price across the top 20 bunkering hubs reached $882 per tonne, 30% above the July low, according to Lloyd's List, while Europe stepped up its LNG imports to offset the shortfall in Persian Gulf supply, which before the war accounted for a fifth of global supply, according to Bloomberg/gCaptain. A McKinsey survey cited by MundoMarítimo found that around 80% of LNG buyers across 14 countries anticipate changes to their sourcing strategy.
Freight Rates and Surcharges
The surge in freight rates rippled through the entire logistics chain. According to Lloyd's List, the Baltic Exchange assessed VLCC spot rates for cargoes loading in the Gulf of Oman as high as $823,213 per day, while executives from Scorpio Tankers and TEN projected that the rate boom could last for several years. In container shipping, FreightWaves reported that spot rates between Asia and the U.S. West Coast reached $8,400 per FEU, the highest level of the year. In Spain, Alfredo Soler, director of TransBase Soler, told Diario del Puerto that the crisis has led to slower turnaround of empty containers and longer dwell times at depots.
Military Deployment and Diplomacy
Washington reinforced its military presence in the region: the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt departed San Diego with 10,000 sailors and Marines aboard, a move that could bring three carrier strike groups simultaneously to the Persian Gulf, according to Bloomberg/gCaptain. Meanwhile, Qatari mediators arranged separate talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and U.S. officials in New York, though Tehran conditioned the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on the fulfillment of its demands. For its part, the UN warned that disruptions to fertilizer shipments through Hormuz threaten food security in countries such as Sudan, Somalia, Mozambique and Tanzania.
