Clarksons Raises Maersk's Profit Forecasts for 2026 and 2027

Investment bank Clarksons Securities raised its profit projections for AP Moller-Maersk following a third quarter that far exceeded its expectations. Analyst Frode Morkedal raised the 2026 EBITDA estimate to $14.3 billion, up from a previous forecast of $11.1 billion, a figure even higher than the company's own guidance of between $10.5 billion and $12.5 billion. For 2027, the forecast rose to $13.1 billion from $7 billion. Despite the improvement, Clarksons maintains its sell rating on the stock over concerns that an oversupply of container ships will weigh on results in the coming years.

According to Clarksons' estimates, Maersk's EBITDA in the third quarter of 2026 was around $5.1 billion, of which about $4.2 billion came from the ocean freight business. The report attributes the improvement to strong US import demand and operational disruptions at Asian ports, compounded by adverse weather conditions, which reduced effective available capacity. Maersk's average freight rates rose nearly 14% in the quarter, reaching around $3,140 per FEU/FFE.

Clarksons raised Maersk's share price target from DKK 15,000 to DKK 20,000, while keeping its sell rating. According to Trade News, the stock was trading at DKK 24,890 at the time, while Ship News noted that the shares touched an intraday high of DKK 25,380 on October 12, a new all-time record. Morkedal explained that, with a total shareholder return of around 75% for the year including dividends, much of the earnings outlook would already be priced into the current valuation.

The main risk Clarksons identifies for the coming years is the growth of the global container ship fleet alongside the gradual return of Suez Canal routes to normal operations, factors that would free up effective capacity faster than cargo demand can absorb. Morkedal projected low single-digit growth in effective vessel demand against net fleet growth of around 7% in 2027, a challenge that would intensify in 2028, when net fleet growth could accelerate to nearly 10% versus just 4% demand growth. Clarksons forecasts Maersk's EBITDA will fall to $10.2 billion in 2028, with adjusted net profit estimated at around $4.2 billion.

Not all analysts share Clarksons' assessment. Fearnley Securities, which upgraded Maersk from hold to buy in September, argues that supply chain disruptions and severe terminal congestion could prolong the strength of the container market. Its analyst Fredrik Dybwad stated that rates will remain 'higher for longer,' noting that port congestion has, by some estimates, exceeded the levels recorded during the pandemic peak.