Conab Projects Record Grain Harvest in Brazil for the 2026/27 Crop Year

Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) estimated that grain production for the 2026/27 crop year will reach 367.1 million tonnes, 1.4% more than in the previous cycle. The projected planted area would grow 2.3%, to 85.4 million hectares, according to the first crop survey released this Thursday.

Soybean production is projected at 181.6 million tonnes, 0.7% higher than last season, with a planted area of 49.3 million hectares (+1.4%) and an average yield of 3,683 kg/ha, 0.8% lower than the previous cycle. In early October, soybean planting was 15.6% complete, with 57% of that area in vegetative development; in Mato Grosso and Paraná, the country's largest producers, the planted percentages stood at 25.2% and 36%, respectively. For corn, Conab forecasts an area of 23.7 million hectares (+4.9%) and production of 148 million tonnes (+2.4%), with an average yield of 6,244 kg/ha, 2.3% lower than the previous cycle.

Soybean exports are estimated at 117.97 million tonnes, up 1.51% according to Porto e Navios and 1.5% according to Datamar News, while soybean meal shipments would rise 3.06% to 27.1 million tonnes. For corn, Porto e Navios and Datamar News agree that exports for the 2025/26 cycle would reach 43.9 million tonnes, with stocks adjusted to 16 million tonnes by February 2027; Bichos del Campo, however, attributes to Conab a projection of exportable corn supply of 46.0 million tonnes for 2026/27 versus 43.9 million tonnes in 2025/26. The use of the grain for ethanol would drive a 6.6% increase in domestic consumption.

Rice production would fall 2.9%, to 10.8 million tonnes, with a total area of 1.53 million hectares; while rainfed area would grow 7.1%, irrigated area, which accounts for most of the production, would fall 0.4%. Rice exports would drop 17.4%, to 1.66 million tonnes, with imports of 1.3 million tonnes and domestic consumption stable at 10.8 million tonnes; carryover stocks would close at 1.4 million tonnes by the end of February 2028, 22.7% lower than projected for 2027. Wheat, meanwhile, is projected at 5.7 million tonnes, a 27.2% drop attributed to the smaller planted area and lower productivity.

Datamar News noted that the El Niño phenomenon would severely affect Brazil during the second half of 2026 and early 2027, with above-average historical rainfall and the risk of flooding and severe storms in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, the country's main rice-growing regions. In contrast, the north and northeast would face severe drought, while the center-west and southeast would suffer extreme heat.