DNV Forecasts Permanent Decline in Middle East Oil and Gas Exports
Cubierto por 3 fuentesPublicado
- Trade newsGlobal conflict set to reduce oil and gas exports permanently
- Trade newsStrait of Hormuz crossings at lowest level in two months after spate of attacks
- GCAPTAIN_NEWSHouthis Kill Three in Strikes on Saudi Arabian Airports
- GCAPTAIN_NEWSSecond Ship Struck Inside Persian Gulf in Three Days
- Trade newsHoegh Autoliners takes hit as Middle East energy crisis drives fuel prices higher
- Baird MaritimeOPINION | Asian refiners emerge as winners in Middle East oil recovery
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is leading experts to forecast a permanent decline in the region's oil and gas exports, according to Ditlev Engel, CEO of Energy Systems at DNV.
The escalation in attacks has drastically reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz: only seven vessels transited the waterway on Tuesday, the lowest level in two months, according to shipping data. UKMTO recorded 275 combined inbound and outbound transits in the most recent reporting week, up from 247 the previous week and 239 three weeks earlier, although traffic remains 75% below pre-conflict levels. At the same time, Iran stepped up attacks on vessels in the Persian Gulf and near Hormuz -UKMTO reported nine attacks in or near Hormuz so far this month, half the number recorded in September- while the Houthis attacked two airports in Saudi Arabia, killing three people, amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran and a nearly 4% jump in Brent crude to $104.10 per barrel.
The rise in fuel costs stemming from the conflict is also hitting shipping companies: Hoegh Autoliners, the car carrier giant, reported an impact on its results due to higher fuel costs caused by the war in the Middle East.
Crude Oil Exports Recovering
Despite the backdrop of attacks, an analysis indicates that Middle East crude oil exports -excluding Iran- are already close to pre-war levels: in September they averaged 18.11 million tonnes per week according to Kpler, compared with an average of 18.22 million tonnes in the eight weeks prior to the start of the conflict with Iran in late February. However, the region's refined fuel exports remain below half of pre-war levels due to damage sustained at refineries, which has benefited Asian refiners, who process crude from the Gulf to turn it into diesel, gasoline and jet fuel for global markets.
