Drewry Forecasts 34 Blank Sailings in Wake of Golden Week
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The consultancy Drewry projected that between week 42 (October 12 to 18) and week 46 (November 9 to 15), 34 blank sailings will be recorded out of a total of 713 announced departures on the main shipping trades, equivalent to a cancellation rate of 5%. According to this survey, 95% of scheduled vessels are expected to depart as planned.
Breakdown by Trade
The cancellations are mainly concentrated on the Asia-North Europe/Mediterranean trade, which accounts for 50% of the blank sailings, followed by the eastbound Transpacific with 32% and the Transatlantic with 18%, according to the Drewry report cited by Portal Portuario and Hellenic Shipping News.
Another Reading of the Data
An analysis published by HKSG Media LTD, also based on Drewry data but covering a different period (weeks 41 to 45, from October 5 to November 8), reported 39 blank sailings out of 710 scheduled voyages, also equivalent to 5% of the total. In that breakdown, 49% of the cancellations corresponded to the eastbound Transpacific, 33% to the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trade, and 18% to the Transatlantic.
Capacity and Freight Rates
Hellenic Shipping News noted that Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) stood at $4,351 per 40-foot container as of October 8, a weekly decline of 2%, with rate decreases on the Transpacific, Asia-Europe/Mediterranean and Transatlantic trades. The strongest pressure remains on Asia-Europe/Mediterranean, where the gradual return of services via the Suez Canal is adding effective capacity as carriers adjust their routings.
Impact on Forwarders
HKSG Media LTD added that, although European freight forwarders report stable bookings after Golden Week, cargo dispatched before the holiday may face rollovers or delays. It also noted that in early October carriers cut FAK rates, but later announced increases of $1,000 per 40-foot container for later in the month, raising doubts about the balance between supply and demand. According to Linerlytica, carriers are adjusting capacity to stabilize rates on the Transpacific corridor, while Sea-Intelligence indicated that planned capacity on the Asia-Europe trade is higher than in previous Golden Weeks.
Drewry noted that higher effective capacity and fewer cancellations could gradually ease pressure on supply, although congestion and network readjustments could continue to constrain capacity and keep rates elevated on some trades. The consultancy said it will continue to monitor the evolution of blank sailing programs, effective capacity, Suez Canal route diversions and global port congestion as operations stabilize following Golden Week.
