Global shipbuilding order book nears all-time high as China captures 74% of new contracts

The global shipyard order book reached an estimated 203.2 million compensated gross tonnes (CGT) as of September 1, 2026, according to an analysis by BIMCO released by its chief analyst, Niels Rasmussen. The figure represents a 13% increase from the 180 million CGT recorded a year earlier, and sits just below the all-time high of 210.4 million CGT reached in May, though above the previous record of 195.4 million CGT set in 2008. China was the biggest beneficiary of this growth, capturing 74% of all tonnage contracted over the past twelve months.

With this result, Chinese shipyards now control 64% of the global order book, far ahead of South Korea, with 19%, and Japan, with just 6%. Chinese leadership extends across the six main commercial cargo segments—container ships, tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers, other dry cargo vessels and RoRo ships—where its shipyards hold more than 72% of the order book in each category, segments that together account for 88% of the global total. Container ships are the main growth driver, accounting for 30% of contracted tonnage and 68% of the increase recorded over the past year, with China taking 81% of that specific segment.

The volume of orders poses a delivery challenge. Based on each country's peak annual output between 2021 and 2025, Chinese shipyards have guaranteed work for an average of 4.2 years, compared with 1.9 years in South Korea and 1.7 years in Japan. Combined deliveries from China, South Korea and Japan reached 40.1 million CGT in 2025, but are scheduled to hit 55.9 million CGT in 2027 and 60 million CGT in 2028. China faces the steepest jump, with a record delivery of 44 million CGT projected for 2028, nearly double the 22.7 million delivered in 2025. Rasmussen warned that the capacity expansion needed to meet these commitments could lead to underutilization if the pace of new contracts slows in the future.

Measured in gross tonnes, the order book stood at 9,699 vessels and 435.8 million GT at the end of September, surpassing the previous record of 422 million GT set in October 2008, although that volume currently equals 24% of the world fleet, compared with 52% eighteen years ago, reflecting the overall growth in maritime capacity. The shortage of space at traditional shipyards is also reshaping the tanker market: according to Veson Nautical, 51 vessels were ordered in 2026 at yards entering this segment for the first time, up 34% from 2025, with eleven of the sixteen new entrants based in China. The most notable case is Hengli Shipbuilding, which delivered its first vessel in 2024 and has already accumulated 495 units on order—including tankers, bulk carriers and container ships—valued by Veson at around $46 billion.