Gulf Oil Exports Rebound Despite Iranian Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
Cubierto por 3 fuentesPublicado
- MARITIME_EXECUTIVEGulf Oil Exports Rebound to Prewar Levels, Despite Iranian Attacks
- datamar newsGulf oil flows rise to average 81% of pre-war rate in September, data shows
- lloyds listMiddle East Gulf product loadings rebound but lag crude recovery amid refinery outages
- lloyds listGlobal crude exports have recovered from Hormuz crisis, but can it last?
Oil exports from Gulf states recovered significantly during September, despite Iran's repeated attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz and attacks recorded against vessels in the region. According to Kpler data cited by The Maritime Executive, volumes leaving the Gulf by ship and pipeline averaged 16.5 million barrels per day in September, a figure JPMorgan estimates is equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels. Vortexa data released by datamar news and Reuters, however, places the recovery at a more moderate level, with flows excluding Iran at 19.2 million barrels per day, or 81% of the 23.6 million barrels per day recorded in the year before the conflict broke out on February 28.
Ship-to-Ship Transfers and Discounts to Dodge Risk
Part of that recovery is explained by a system of shuttle tankers that carry crude through the strait's hazardous waters before transferring it to other tankers bound for distant markets; according to Kpler, more than 70% of the oil passing through Hormuz ends up in a ship-to-ship transfer, mostly at the Fujairah anchorage. Saudi Arabia was key to that rebound, with crude exports reaching 6.4 million barrels per day last week, above pre-war levels. That flow came at a cost: according to Bloomberg, cited by The Maritime Executive, Iraqi exporters are selling their crude at discounts of up to $37 per barrel against the benchmark price in order to get it out of the strait.
Iranian Exports Fall to Zero
While other Gulf producers adapted to attacks on energy and shipping infrastructure by resorting to dark transits -that is, switching off vessel tracking systems to avoid detection- Iran's exports fell to zero as a result of the blockade imposed by the United States. According to Vortexa data, Saudi Arabia's rebound offset that drop as well as the declines recorded in Kuwait and Qatar, while the United Arab Emirates and Iraq also increased their shipments.
Other Cargoes Fail to Recover
Unlike crude oil, other commodities such as LNG, urea, ammonia, sulfur and refined products have yet to return to pre-war volumes leaving the Gulf. According to Lloyd's List, shipments of refined products from Persian Gulf ports rose 50% month-on-month in September and stood 164% above the low recorded during the crisis, but still remain below pre-war levels, amid Middle Eastern refineries operating at reduced rates. The Maritime Executive notes that distillates are the hardest-hit segment: Ukrainian attacks temporarily halted Russian diesel exports, the security situation in Hormuz is limiting shipments from Gulf refineries, and Saudi Red Sea refineries have suffered attacks by Houthi and Iraqi militias. As a result, the US wholesale price of diesel hit a record $6.53 per gallon last week, up from $3.70 a year earlier.
The Global Crude Oil Picture
On a global scale, Lloyd's List reports that seaborne crude export volumes have already recovered to year-ago levels and now stand 10% above the 2021-2025 average, according to Vortexa data. VLCC volumes, the hardest hit by the Hormuz crisis, have also realigned with that historical average. The rebound was driven by the recovery of Middle Eastern exports, which now account for 40% of global seaborne crude flows, up from a low of 20% recorded in May.
