McKinsey: Geopolitics Becomes a Central Cost for Global Energy

McKinsey & Company's Global Energy Perspective 2026 report argues that the global energy system is entering increasingly uncertain waters and that risks are no longer confined to energy markets. According to the study, demand is growing, artificial intelligence is generating a rapidly expanding appetite for electricity, and geopolitics is redrawing supply chains, while affordability and energy security are moving to center stage alongside decarbonization.

As an example of this vulnerability, McKinsey cites the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, where vessel traffic fell by more than 90% within a few weeks after the conflict broke out, sending energy prices soaring across different fuels and continents. The report also warns that, in a scenario of geopolitical fragmentation, rebuilding supply chains currently concentrated outside China could raise solar capex by 20% to 25%, and battery storage capex by 40% to 50% in the European Union and the United States, while trade friction would drive up fuel costs through longer routes and higher insurance costs.

McKinsey identifies the power grid as the main speed limit of the energy transition, noting that transmission, storage and permitting are now the most common bottleneck across all the scenarios analyzed. The report warns that the next energy crisis could originate as much from equipment, labor, batteries or critical minerals as from oil. At the same time, it projects that crude oil demand could reach nearly 130 million barrels per day by 2035, 30% more than today, under a high-growth scenario, while nuclear power would stage a strong comeback under the decarbonization scenario, doubling annual net additions to 40 gigawatts by 2050.

McKinsey's warning about the Strait of Hormuz as a breaking point is echoed in statements by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, who described global oil inventories as 'worryingly low.' According to Aramco, nearly 3 billion barrels of supply have been lost since the conflict began, and more than 1 billion barrels from strategic and commercial reserves have been released to cushion the blow, with crude trading above $100 per barrel. Nasser estimated that replenishing those reserves could require additional demand of 2 million barrels per day over the next 18 months.

The International Monetary Fund, for its part, kept its global growth projection for 2027 unchanged at 3.4% and raised its 2026 forecast to 3.1%, warning that the conflict in the Middle East and rising public debt threaten the economic outlook. The organization expects oil to average $96 per barrel in 2026 before falling to $87 in 2027, assuming that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes by March 2027; if crude were to reach $130 during the first quarter of that year, global growth would be lower and inflation would rise to 5.2% in 2027.

Despite the security risks flagged in McKinsey's report, bulk carrier traffic not linked to Iran through the Strait of Hormuz remains strong, with 56 transits recorded in September, around double pre-ceasefire levels. Shipowners are betting that bulk carriers face less risk of being targeted than tankers, while commodity flows show growing evidence of alternative overland routes and regional supply chains.