Northern Sea Route Transits Already Surpass Full-Year 2025 Total

The number of commercial transit voyages along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which crosses the Russian Arctic, surpassed by late September the total recorded for all of 2025. According to data from the Center for High North Logistics (CHNL), 104 transits were confirmed as of September 30, compared with 103 for the entire 2025 navigation season and 97 in 2024. Estimated cargo volume reached 3.7 million metric tonnes, 15% higher than the 2025 full-year total of 3.2 million tonnes.

The combined deadweight tonnage of vessels that completed transits reached about 7.8 million tonnes, 26% higher than the 6.2 million recorded in 2025, according to AIS data analysis conducted by CHNL using MarineTraffic by Kpler. The organization estimates that the final 2026 figure could approach 150 transits and exceed 4.5 million tonnes of cargo, as of September 30 there were another 45 potential voyages underway or within the NSR area that could still be counted as completed transits.

Tankers were the largest cargo segment, with 22 eastbound voyages carrying around 2.1 million tonnes, mainly Russian crude oil bound for Asia. Bulk carriers logged 13 eastbound voyages carrying 1.1 million tonnes, along with 27 westbound voyages linked to vessel repositioning toward the Baltic and European Russia. In the container segment, CHNL counted 13 container ship transits through late September, including four international Asia-Europe voyages with neither origin nor destination in Russia, compared with just one during the entire 2025 season. Among these voyages were the vessels Panstar Acro and Dubai Tower, which arrived in the United Kingdom from South Korea and China respectively, the Riyadh Mukaab, which sailed from China to Felixstowe, and the bulk carrier Nan Xin 27, which completed a voyage from China to Klaipeda, Lithuania.

Ice conditions shaped how the season unfolded: during the first half of August, much of the traffic was diverted north of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago, bypassing the traditional route through the Vilkitsky Strait, though conditions later improved and allowed a return to the conventional route, with a more continuous open-water corridor emerging by early September. Late-season conditions were more favorable for navigation than in 2024 and 2025, although seasonal freeze-up was expected to progressively restrict non-ice-capable vessels from mid-October onward. Russian oil exports via the NSR grew by nearly 50% this year, with around 20 million barrels shipped to Asia between July and mid-October, while disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Black Sea made the Arctic passage more attractive despite its costs and risks.

The growth in traffic along one of the planet's most sensitive waterways raised environmental concerns: Dr. Sian Prior, senior advisor to the Clean Arctic Alliance, warned that increased commercial shipping activity would bring greater climate impacts, pollution and biodiversity loss, with particular attention to black carbon emissions that accelerate ice melt, as well as the growing risk of oil spills in remote waters with limited response infrastructure. At the same time, the European Union intensified its focus on Arctic access and maritime security: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called for cooperation with the United States and Canada to maintain international access to Arctic routes, in discussions that also emphasized maritime surveillance, protection of critical infrastructure and icebreaker capacity.