Seaborne Coal Trade Grows 3% Amid LNG Shortage in Asia

Global seaborne coal trade returned to growth, rising 3% year-on-year between January and September 2026, reversing the 4% contraction recorded in 2025, according to a report by Ifchor Galbraiths. The rebound is being driven by an LNG shortage in Asian markets other than China and India, which turned to coal amid supply disruptions originating in the Arabian Gulf.

LNG transit through the Strait of Hormuz has remained virtually shut since February 28, wiping out nearly 20% of the global LNG market. Only a minimal fraction of the vessels that transited before the crisis are risking the strait crossing, and the few LNG carriers that do so are sailing dark, with Gulf exporters having no alternatives such as pipelines or ship-to-ship transfers.

While thermal coal imports fell 7% in China and 10% in India between March and September on higher domestic supply, other Asian countries offset that decline with an increase of nearly 10%. South Korea lifted an 80% cap on coal-fired generation and raised its purchases 14% year-on-year in the first nine months of the year, while Japan increased imports 8%; Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam also expanded their imports.

Seaborne metallurgical coal trade grew 10% year-on-year over the period, with Australian exports up 13% and shipments to China nearly doubling, according to Seatrade Maritime. At the same time, Australian thermal coal exports rose 3% year-on-year between January and September and 15% between March and September, as gas-starved buyers in North Asia turned to higher-calorific-value Australian coal, according to Ports News Russia.

Laura Gomez, of Ifchor Galbraiths' Research & Advisory team and author of the Coal Markets Companion Report, noted that the recovery in seaborne coal trade is taking place despite falling imports in China and India, and stressed that demand is shifting toward other Asian markets. The firm's head of dry bulk research, Vincent Lemaître, said much of the 2026 rebound was concentrated in the second quarter and that, with the Hormuz crisis still unresolved and coal futures prices rising, a new wave of buying is expected ahead of the winter peak. The report also accompanied the launch of Coal 360, a market intelligence service covering coal production, exports, ports, trade routes and vessel deployment through 2030.