Shipping Boom Hits Record Highs but Shows Signs of Fatigue by Sector

Clarksons' composite ClarkSea Index averaged a record 46,384 dollars per day during the third quarter of 2026, surpassing the previous all-time high of 44,222 dollars per day recorded in the second quarter of 2008, driven by extraordinary earnings in VLCC tankers and liquefied petroleum gas carriers. Despite these highs, an analysis by Splash 247 suggests there could be signs that the bull cycle is beginning to run out of steam in some shipping segments, though not uniformly across all sectors.

According to Splash 247, the container segment faces a very large delivery schedule just as the return of services to the Suez Canal threatens to free up additional effective capacity. BIMCO's chief analyst, Niels Rasmussen, expects market conditions to start weakening toward the end of 2026, since even if every vessel reaching 25 years of age is recycled, fleet capacity could grow 9% annually between 2027 and 2029, against demand growth of just 3% to 5% per year. Linerlytica noted that more than 140 vessels with over 2 million TEU have resumed transiting Suez since May, while the containership orderbook has reached a record of around 15.6 million TEU.

The tanker market showed the most extreme behavior of the cycle: Clarksons reported that VLCC earnings averaged 277,995 dollars per day in the third quarter, with some routes exceeding 1.6 million dollars per day in early October, while Suezmax tankers averaged 228,262 dollars per day and Aframax tankers 119,189 dollars. According to Splash 247, the tanker orderbook already represents around 27% of the existing fleet, with 37% for VLCCs and 32% for Suezmax, and brokerage Poten & Partners questioned whether freight costs could begin to curb oil demand, calculating that VLCC freight from the Middle East to Asia went from accounting for 3% of the delivered cost of crude at the start of the year to around 27% at recent rates.

The dry bulk segment appears less exposed, according to Splash 247, supported by genuine ton-mile growth rather than just geopolitical disruptions; Maritime Strategies International forecasts dry bulk trade growth of around 2% for next year. However, Lloyd's List warned that the bulker orderbook has nearly doubled in less than three years and that 2027 will be the biggest delivery year in more than a decade, with the orderbook at around 15% of the fleet and more than 52 million deadweight tonnes scheduled for delivery in 2027, while scrapping has practically disappeared. The outlet noted that required deadweight demand rose nearly 5% this year, more than double cargo volume growth, due to longer voyages, port congestion and slower steaming.

Splash 247 described a common pattern among owners across different sectors: ordering more ships, paying high prices for secondhand tonnage, and keeping older vessels in operation. Broker Gibson Shipbrokers titled its recycling report 'I See No Ships', noting that scrapyards are struggling to identify candidates, while recent deals show a 2009-built Suezmax sold for 92 million dollars and a 2011-built VLCC sold for about 170 million dollars, figures that come close to newbuilding values.