UKMTO Admits It Cannot Determine the Real Number of Attacks in the Strait of Hormuz

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) acknowledged in its weekly report published on October 16 that most merchant vessels attacked in the Strait of Hormuz are not reporting the incidents directly to the organization, which complicates establishing the real number of attacks in the area. The entity noted that it is aware of additional incidents through other sources, but cannot include them in its statistics due to lack of verification.

In its latest reporting period, UKMTO recorded 12 attacks, 10 of them in the Strait of Hormuz, one in the Arabian Gulf and another in the Gulf of Oman; six vessels continued their voyage or arrived in port, two were left disabled and three had unconfirmed outcomes, while the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride was lost after being struck by a projectile. The report also detailed that 55 of the 74 documented projectile strikes since July 6 occurred on the southern route of the area. According to CNSS, since the conflict between the United States and Iran began on February 28, UKMTO has recorded 135 incidents linked to the conflict, with 114 reports of damage to vessels and 76 dead or injured.

UKMTO's figures contrast with statements from US Central Command chief, Admiral Brad Cooper, who claimed that US forces and their regional partners maintain control of the strait and that it remains open to trade, citing about 400 merchant vessels transiting in the previous week and more than 100 million barrels of crude moved with US support. However, UKMTO recorded 254 combined transits in the seven days up to October 14, of which only 42 were observed through AIS data and 212 came from US reports that cannot be independently verified, with traffic still 70% below pre-conflict levels. Iran, for its part, insists that the strait will remain closed until the rights of the Iranian people are respected, according to statements by General Amir Hatami, while the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) describes a northern route under Iranian control and a southern corridor controlled by Oman.

Following the publication of the report, at least four new incidents were reported. On October 16, the VLCC ST3, managed by subsidiaries of AD Ports Group, was struck by an unidentified projectile about 68 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubail, Saudi Arabia, with the crew safely evacuated. The following day, another tanker was hit by an RPG fired from a small craft 78 nautical miles off Al Jubail, and a tug was struck by two projectiles near Khor Fakkan, United Arab Emirates, with one crew member slightly injured. In the Gulf of Aden, an LNG carrier was approached by a boat carrying seven people who fired on the vessel, with no confirmed link to Iranian attacks. The IRGC also claimed that two supertankers had struck mines in the strait, a claim JMIC described as unfounded.

Despite the violence, Signal Ocean data cited by CNSS indicate that around 13.9 million barrels per day of crude oil and 2.3 million barrels per day of refined products continue to transit the strait, while the Nordic bank SEB maintained that the current disruption reflects more of a risk premium than an actual drop in volumes. JMIC reported that about 217 vessels remained at anchor near Fujairah and Khor Fakkan, with congestion increasing outside the strait.