US Tightens Iran Sanctions with 'Presumption of Denial' Policy on Licenses

The US Department of the Treasury has begun rejecting requests for waivers to Iran sanctions that it previously approved routinely, under a new policy known as 'presumption of denial' for license applications. According to Trade News, shipments of grain and medicine, as well as emergency situations, could still be granted licenses under this new framework.

The move comes amid a broader naval blockade imposed by the United States on Iran. According to preliminary tanker-tracking data cited by Safety4Sea, Iran did not load crude oil onto a single tanker during September, the first month without any recorded maritime crude departures since the war began in February. Iranian loadings had averaged around 250,000 barrels per day in August, according to Bloomberg estimates, before falling to zero in September, a figure also confirmed by tracking firms Kpler and Vortexa.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on October 1 that its forces had diverted 125 merchant vessels through September 30, ten of them in the last week, as part of efforts to strengthen enforcement of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. Iran had restricted passage through that waterway following the US and Israeli strikes that began in February, and although the strait briefly reopened in June, Washington resumed the blockade in mid-July after negotiations stalled.

With Iranian tankers unable to leave the Gulf, Iran has spent ten weeks selling crude from the reserves it had built up as a contingency, stored mainly off the coasts of Malaysia and China, according to Maritime Executive. China has historically purchased 90% of Iranian crude exports, and independent refineries in Shandong continue to buy the discounted product in exchange for taking on sanctions risk, though those stockpiles could run out if cargoes do not resume.

The same report notes that the Iranian middlemen who handle the sale of sanctioned oil, known as 'trustees,' face mounting pressure both from the lack of product to trade and from internal criticism within Iran, as well as from the Operation Economic Outcast crackdown on the network of shell companies and financial entities they use. Last week the US Treasury sanctioned an extensive network of financial subagents linked to the Russian-controlled A7 network, which officials estimate processed $17 billion in transactions between January 2025 and June 2026.