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The possible reactivation of the El Niño phenomenon in the coming months is once again generating concern regarding the operability of the Panama Canal, a strategic infrastructure for global maritime trade. According to NOAA estimates cited by BRS Tanker, there is a high probability that the climatic event will develop between 2026 and 2027, with scenarios that could reach strong intensity and affect navigation and transit conditions in the interoceanic waterway.
The analysis indicates that a decrease in rainfall in the Gatun Lake basin, the main water source for the canal, could lead to new operational restrictions. The experience recorded during the 2023-2024 phenomenon forced a significant reduction in the number of daily transits, while currently the Panama Canal Authority maintains water monitoring and saving measures, in addition to draft restrictions for certain vessels.
The eventual application of new limitations could impact global cargo flows, increase logistical costs, and alter the planning of international maritime routes. For exporting countries like Ecuador, which depend on efficient connectivity with various markets, the evolution of El Niño will be a key factor for maritime transport, supply chains, and the dynamics of international trade in the coming months.
Source: camara_ecuador
