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U.S. retailers frontload China orders for holiday season ahead of tariff hikes
June 30 (Reuters) – U.S. retailers have brought forward orders from China by four-to-six weeks to secure their inventories for Black Friday and Christmas holiday sales before expected tariff hikes later this year, shipping executives said.
U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to China last month has preserved the detente between the world's two largest powers, but uncertainty remains high.
A universal 10% U.S. tariff imposed by Washington in February, after the Supreme Court declared some earlier tariffs illegal, expires on July 24, but it is widely expected to be replaced with higher levies.
The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed a 12.5% tariff on imports from China and elsewhere following an investigation into forced labor, which Beijing denies, with a final decision expected in coming months.
"There is an expectation that tariffs could be raised again, or restored to previous levels, so everyone is rushing to get goods in before that happens," said Tony Meng, a China-based senior sales manager at shipping firm XPD Global.
Usually such orders peak in July-September but shipping firms said volumes in May and June were higher than expected, contributing to a spike in shipping prices.
The frontloading means that the 35% growth in U.S. imports from China in May, which overshadowed April's 11% growth and March's contraction, could be sustained in June but may fade later in the summer.
Exports have been a key growth driver this year for China, compensating for structural weakness in domestic demand and building on a strong 2025 when the world's second-largest economy posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus.
China's top U.S. export items by value in May included smartphones, lithium-ion batteries, solid-state drives, toys, kitchenware and festival products. June data will be released on July 14.
Shipping group Maersk said in a statement to Reuters that container space has been tightening on the China–U.S. route since mid-May, due to "stronger customer demand and earlier seasonal bookings."
A China-based shipping executive, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said back-to-school items such as stationery and apparel were part of the May-June frontloading, while early Christmas stockpiling also played a role.
He added May's rise was also due to soccer World Cup-related orders, including jerseys, flags, souvenirs and large-screen TVs. The U.S. co-hosts the tournament with Canada and Mexico.
Maritime consultancy Drewry's World Container Index showed spot shipping rates from Shanghai to New York on June 25 were $7,149 per 40-foot container, 6% higher than a week before and 25% up on the year. On the Shanghai to Los Angeles route the cost was $5,750, 12% up on the week and 54% higher on the year.
"Importers continue frontloading shipments ahead of potential tariff changes and higher bunker-related costs," a Drewry report said.
Outdoor furniture maker Jin Chaofeng said it would be hard to pass the entire cost of shipping fees on to customers, pointing to thin pricing power and profit margins for Chinese manufacturers in less technologically advanced sectors.
Kyle Henderson, CEO and co-founder of container-tracking software provider Vizion, warned however that tariffs still weigh on overall U.S. demand which remains below its three-year average and should only be described as "normal-to-soft."
The higher shipping costs reflect capacity management by transport firms more than surging U.S. demand, Henderson said, citing some canceled sailings in recent weeks.
Henderson expects volumes to drop after July and into the third quarter due to a "combination of inventory already landed and a tariff environment that structurally raises the cost of China-origin goods."
(Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Marius Zaharia; Additional reporting by Lanqin Tian; Editing by Stephen Coates)
