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Despite some new conflicting guidance from U.S. and Iranian forces on the safest route through the Strait of Hormuz, commercial shipping is resuming slowly - though it is tough to spot.
"50-60 percent of the traffic is completely dark," said Windward co-founder Ami Daniel, speaking to CNBC. The blackout is more than just transiting with AIS off - these ships are moving without radar, satellite or VHF comms for fear of being targeted. "This is like full-on navy operational mode for ordinary tankers," he added, and it makes it tough to count the number of transits accurately. As might be expected from these extreme precautions, "[shipowner confidence] is absolutely, without a doubt not there yet," he said.
Iran's shadow fleet tonnage continues to operate with a diversity of deceptive practices, including fraudulent flagging; hidden ownership; and coastwise shipments of oil from Iran towards Iraq, where covert STS transfers to disguise the origin of oil have historically been common. Outbound, sanctioned, Iran-linked tankers made up a large share of the day's traffic, Windward said.
Iran has a motive to export quickly: the U.S. Treasury has given Iran a 60-day waiver to sell crude at any price it can, to any willing buyer. China has historically been Iran's top customer for petroleum, but cut its imports by half during the peak of the Hormuz crisis; its return to the market is expected to come soon, and to absorb much of the pent-up surge of Iranian exports.
Iran's tankers tend to use Iranian-controlled northern half of the strait, but foreign-flag vessels have a choice of routing. The FT reports that shipowners are receiving competing instructions from Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (which manages the northern, Iranian route) and U.S. Central Command (which has its own corridor on the south side, in Omani waters). The so-called PGSA advises using its lane for safety, while CENTCOM and certain Western insurers advise that the Omani lane is better. If followed, that choice could put them in Iran's crosshairs.
"If they follow the guidance of underwriters and U.S. authorities by navigating closer to Oman, they risk interference, detention or potential hostile action from Iranian authorities," said Dr SV Anchan, chair of Safesea Shipping, speaking to the FT.
Alternatively, if owners choose to follow Iranian guidance, they can submit all transit details to the "PGSA" at least 48 hours ahead of the planned crossing, wait for a transit permit valid for a one-way voyage, and have the crew stand by for further instructions on VHF.
Fuente: The Maritime Executive
