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The maritime market between Asia, Mexico, and South America experienced a relative pause in the tariff escalation that marked the first quarter of the year during April. However, behind this apparent stability, new capacity pressures were already beginning to emerge, which today anticipate a new upward cycle for the start of the Peak Season.
The EAX Index, developed by the Chinese company Eternity Group Mexico, closed April at $2,761 per 40-foot equivalent unit (FEU) for the Asia > Mexico + West Coast of South America (WCSA) route, a slight decrease of 1.71% compared to March. The correction, however, was far from representing a structural weakening of the market.
During the fourth month of the year, rates operated within a relatively narrow band of between $2,500 and $2,900 per FEU, reflecting a significant reduction in volatility and greater stability in both available capacity and mobilized volumes. This behavior contrasted with the strong movements recorded weeks earlier, when geopolitical tensions and operational adjustments by shipping lines drove abrupt increases on various transpacific and Latin American routes.
But the balance was short-lived. Towards the last week of April, shipowners began to execute strategic capacity cuts in anticipation of the Labor Day holiday in China, celebrated from May 1 to 5. The reduction in available space caused a build-up of cargo prior to the temporary closure of operations, a phenomenon that subsequently triggered additional demand pressure once the holiday period concluded.
The result was immediate. In the first days of May, the market resumed an upward trajectory and brought forward the start of the high season for maritime trade. Shipping lines began to implement General Rate Increases (GRIs) practically every week, with adjustments of between $500 and $1,000 per FEU, in an attempt to capitalize on capacity restrictions and strengthen tariff levels.
However, the report itself warns that the sustainability of these increases will depend on the actual ability of demand to absorb them in the short term, especially in an environment where doubts persist about the pace of global consumption and the evolution of supply chains.
The analysis also focuses on the operational discipline that shippers must maintain in the coming weeks. Among the main recommendations is to avoid any logistical speculation when dealing with critical or high-value cargo, as well as to book spaces at least three or four weeks in advance to reduce financial and operational risks.
Added to this is the need to maintain absolute precision in defining the Cargo Ready Date (CRD), because any modification to the committed date significantly increases the probability of losing spaces previously assigned by shipping lines, particularly in an environment of restricted capacity.
In parallel, global capacity continued to expand. Alphaliner data cited in the report shows that during April, 88,744 TEU (20-foot equivalent units) of new capacity entered the global maritime market. The largest addition came from CMA CGM, which added 29,254 TEU during the month, reinforcing the trend of fleet growth despite the current operational adjustments applied on various routes.
The dynamic observed on the West Coast of South America also replicated itself in the Asia–East Coast of South America (ECSA) corridor, albeit with higher rates. The EAX Index for this route closed April at $3,093 per FEU, with a marginal decrease of 1.65% compared to the previous month.
During April, the ECSA market found a solid floor near $3,000 per FEU, supported by weekly capacity exceeding 60,000 TEU. However, that support changed radically at the beginning of May, when rates aggressively escalated to exceed $3,800 per FEU.
The report attributes this behavior to the success of the capacity restriction strategies implemented by shipowners, thus consolidating a regional upward trend at the beginning of the second quarter of the year. The movement also confirms that, despite the entry of new fleet into the global market, shipping lines continue to use capacity management as their main tool to sustain rates on the most demanded routes.
