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A Hong Kong hedge fund that outperformed peers says shipping stocks are a better trade than artificial intelligence, given the risks of tech companies overspending.
By Jeanny Yu and Chongjing Li
May 19, 2026 (Bloomberg) –A Hong Kong hedge fund that outperformed peers says shipping stocks are a better trade than artificial intelligence, given the risks of tech companies overspending.
HD Capital Ltd.'s flagship fund allocated 11% of its portfolio in oil transport and 6.1% in shipbuilders as of April, making them its largest exposure. The $200 million multi-asset fund beat 97% of its peers this year and over a five-year period, based on industry data provider With Intelligence.
"The tanker cycle could remain strong well into 2028–2029, as new capacity won't arrive until then," said Michael Wang, chief investment officer at HD Capital. "Supply is tightly constrained, while demand can easily be triggered by geopolitical shocks. That's why the shipping cycle has visibility for years ahead."
Shipping rates have risen significantly due to the Middle East conflict, while years of underinvestment left global shipbuilding capacity constrained, limiting new supply. That means shipyards and oil transport companies have high earnings visibility, Wang said. That contrasts with the AI trade, which has become risky due to the billions in capital expenditure by tech companies, he added.
Shares of major Asian shipping firms, including COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co. and crude oil tanker manufacturer Samsung Heavy Industries Co. have surged about 200% and 100% over the past year, respectively.
While his peers chased tech and AI names, Wang said his fund intentionally leaned into industrial names like shipyards and oil tankers given high earnings visibility.
HD Capital cut exposure to stocks in March, trimming overall equity holdings from more than 90% to about 65% as geopolitical risks flared. The flagship Horizon China Non-US Feeder Fund has only 1% exposure to internet stocks.
Wang said US and Chinese tech behemoths are trapped in a race to develop their AI models through massive spending and may struggle to earn returns that justify their investments.
"The entire AI capital expenditure globally looks like a bubble," he said. "They poured billions in the AI they created, but the revenue doesn't come close to what they spent."
HD Capital also profited from distressed opportunities closer to home. Wang said the fund bought New World Development Co. debt at steep discounts during a liquidity crunch, betting that Hong Kong authorities and banks would not allow the property giant to collapse.
"It was a liquidity shock, not insolvency," he said, noting that government support and the company's prime assets gave the fund confidence the bonds would recover.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.
This article contains reporting from Bloomberg, published under license.
Fuente: GCAPTAIN_NEWS
