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ABS is urging regulators to adopt a more flexible approach to the International Maritime Organization's greenhouse gas reduction framework, arguing that fuel availability and infrastructure constraints could make it difficult for large segments of the global fleet to comply with increasingly stringent emissions rules.
In a new position paper released Monday, the classification society said maritime decarbonization is likely to proceed through multiple pathways rather than a single fuel solution and warned against relying exclusively on fuel-switching requirements to drive emissions reductions.
The report comes as the shipping industry grapples with implementation of the IMO's Net Zero Framework, which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions around 2050. ABS said the framework must account for real-world constraints including fuel availability, infrastructure readiness, vessel deployment patterns and commercial realities across different shipping sectors.
"There is a clear direction set by the IMO, but the pathway forward has become increasingly complex for the industry," ABS Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John McDonald said in a statement.
According to ABS, only about 10% of global fleet tonnage is currently capable of operating on alternative fuels, with another 6% classified as fuel-ready, underscoring the early stage of the industry's transition.
The society's assessment highlights significant differences between shipping sectors. Containerships, ferries and cruise ships operating on fixed routes are generally better positioned to access alternative fuel supply chains, while bulk carriers and tankers engaged in tramp trades face greater challenges because of their variable trading patterns and limited access to bunkering infrastructure.
ABS identified LNG as the most mature alternative fuel pathway, citing more than 220 ports with LNG bunkering capability and over 50 dedicated bunker vessels worldwide. By 2030, the LNG-capable fleet is projected to reach approximately 112 million gross tons, according to the analysis.
Methanol is emerging as a second major pathway but faces significant supply challenges. ABS estimates realistically deliverable green methanol production could reach only 6 million to 13 million tonnes annually by 2030, representing just 13% to 29% of announced production capacity and only a small fraction of global shipping fuel demand.
Ammonia, while frequently cited as a long-term zero-carbon fuel solution, is expected to remain a niche option through the end of the decade. ABS projects an ammonia-capable fleet of just 2.5 million gross tons by 2030, with limited bunkering infrastructure available globally.
The classification society argued that a compliance framework based primarily on fuel switching could create unintended consequences, including competitive distortions between regions and vessel types, increasing compliance risks as fuel-intensity requirements tighten, and the potential for operators to rely on financial penalties rather than actual emissions reductions.
Instead, ABS is advocating for a framework that incorporates greater recognition of energy-efficiency measures, which it describes as the most immediate and cost-effective source of emissions reductions available to shipping today. The society estimates an additional 20% to 35% efficiency improvement potential remains achievable through measures such as slow steaming, voyage optimization, air lubrication systems and wind-assisted propulsion.
ABS also supports integrating carbon credits tied to energy-efficiency improvements into the IMO's greenhouse gas intensity framework, arguing that such a mechanism could provide a practical bridge while supplies of low- and zero-carbon fuels remain constrained.
The organization said elements of proposals submitted to the IMO by Liberia, Japan, Saudi Arabia and the United States offer useful building blocks for a more balanced regulatory framework. ABS expressed particular support for aspects of the Liberian and Japanese proposals that seek to better align compliance requirements with fuel availability and technological readiness.
Looking ahead, ABS projects alternative fuels will account for only about 17% of the industry's fuel mix by 2030, with conventional fuels and biofuel blends still representing roughly 83% of consumption. The society argues this reality underscores the need for regulatory frameworks that reflect the pace at which fuel supply chains and infrastructure can realistically be deployed.
Fuente: GCAPTAIN_NEWS
