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Up to 70 vessels are waiting near the Sulina Canal on the Danube to access Ukrainian ports and load grain for export, according to traders and analysts, with a shortage of pilots and priority given to other cargo creating long delays.
After Russian attacks effectively blocked Ukraine's Black Sea ports, which handled 90% of the country's grain shipments, some shipments were rerouted through the Danube River ports, which have a much smaller capacity.
Grain shipments are competing for access with higher-priority shipments, such as fuel, which is slowing down exports. Frequent air raid alerts, which force the suspension of all port operations, have exacerbated the disruption.
Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain exporters, and disruptions to its shipments can drive up global prices.
"As of August 25, more than 50 vessels were waiting to pass through the Sulina Canal, while only five to seven vessels per day were moving towards the Ukrainian Danube ports," said consulting firm ASAP Agri.
The consultancy stated on Telegram that each day of delay can cost up to $8,000, further increasing already high freight rates.
"The situation could worsen if weather conditions deteriorate in the coming days," it added.
Katerina Kononenko, operations manager at shipping company Avalon, noted that the Sulina Canal was expected to remain closed for about two days due to bad weather.
"For the current situation, this is really a serious setback. Today, about 70 vessels are waiting in the Sulina roadstead. At this moment, the actual traffic capacity of the Sulina Canal for vessels heading to Ukrainian ports is only two to three vessels per day. This is very low," she added.
Ukraine also relied heavily on Danube ports at the beginning of the war when Russia blocked ports in the Greater Odesa region. Grain export capacity through the Danube peaked at 2.5 million metric tons per month between 2022 and 2023.
Export volumes through the Danube remain well below those levels, although traders are gradually increasing shipments. State railway company Ukrzaliznytsia indicated this month that grain transport volumes to Danube ports in August were 11 times higher than in July.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that Ukraine exported 539,000 tons of grain from August 1 to 21, compared to 1.73 million tons in the same period last year.
