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Global food prices rose in August to their highest level since late 2022, as disruptions linked to the war between Russia and Ukraine exerted renewed pressure on grain markets and Black Sea exports, according to data from the United Nations (UN) and the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).
The Food Price Index of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization rose to 133.3 points in August, up from 130.8 in July, with price increases across all five major food categories. The index remains about 17% below its March 2022 peak, reached after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The PIE noted that attacks on port infrastructure and shipping in July and August largely paralyzed grain trade from Russia and Ukraine, countries which together account for about a third of global wheat exports.
Russian aggressions against Ukrainian ports in Odesa and along the Danube reduced Ukraine's wheat exports to 1.6 million metric tons between August 1 and 28, about 60% below the previous year's level and only 20% of the country's potential export capacity, according to the PIE, citing Ukrainian authorities.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks against the Russian port facility of Novorossiysk contributed to a 56% year-on-year drop in Russian wheat exports, according to estimates from agricultural consultancy SovEcon cited by the institute. Russian wheat shipments totaled 1.6 million metric tons in the first month of the season, their lowest level for that period since 2017/18.
This disruption is already spilling over into international markets. Wheat futures rose about 30% year-on-year in August to reach their highest level in over three years, the PIE stated. Asian importers have also begun to divert their purchases towards Australian and Argentine wheat, as deliveries from Russia and Ukraine become less reliable.
Ukraine is seeking alternative routes for its agricultural exports and has called for increased transit through Poland and other neighboring EU states, as well as the lifting of the Polish embargo on imports of Ukrainian wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.
However, the PIE maintained that land routes cannot replace the volumes previously handled through Black Sea ports. Low water levels in the Danube and attacks on infrastructure near Moldova are also limiting Ukraine's alternative export routes.
Russia is attempting to redirect some of its grain exports to Baltic ports following disruptions in Novorossiysk, which normally handles about a third of Russian grain exports, but alternative routes involve higher costs and longer delivery times.
For Ukraine, agricultural products represent about 60% of total exports, meaning a prolonged disruption could add pressure on export revenues, storage capacity, and economic growth, according to the PIE.
The institute warned that continuous attacks on Black Sea infrastructure are increasing the economic cost of the war for both Russia and Ukraine, while transmitting that pressure increasingly quickly to global food markets.
