Blue Economy as a Peruvian Strategy Against El Niño

The arrival of the El Niño phenomenon forces Peru to reinforce the protection of marine biodiversity and strategic activities such as fishing, aquaculture, and tourism, said Jimpson Dávila, director of the Marine Governance Program at the Peruvian Society for Environmental Law (SPDA).

The alert gains greater relevance because the National Center for Estimation, Prevention and Reduction of Disaster Risk (Cenepred) estimates that more than 9.3 million people would be affected, mainly in Lima, Piura, La Libertad, Lambayeque, and Ica.

"This scenario forces the country to rethink how it protects one of the main assets that sustain its economy: the sea and the activities it generates. Therefore, the Contingency Plan announced by the Government in response to the El Niño phenomenon could incorporate a blue economy approach that strengthens prevention and response capacity of strategic sectors such as fishing, aquaculture, tourism, and the conservation of marine biodiversity," said Jimpson Dávila.

The specialist recalled that climate change and ocean acidification are increasing the frequency and intensity of El Niño. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects an 80% probability that the phenomenon will reach a very strong intensity by the end of this year, while the scientific journal Nature warns that it could become the most intense episode in the last 150 years.

"In the fishing sector, public policy should incorporate an adaptive approach, based on a flexible regulatory framework that allows fishermen to diversify their catches according to resource availability. El Niño modifies the distribution of species, and adaptation must become a permanent principle of fisheries management to strengthen the resilience of the sector, where more than 55,000 people are dedicated to artisanal fishing," he stated.

Jimpson Dávila pointed out that adaptation must also extend to coastal communities, as depending exclusively on fishing increases vulnerability to climate variability. Therefore, he considered it necessary to promote economic alternatives that allow families to maintain their income when the availability of hydrobiological resources decreases.

"Complementary activities such as community tourism, local gastronomy, and public programs for diversification or labor reconversion can generate alternative sources of income and strengthen the economic resilience of thousands of families," he affirmed.

The specialist highlighted that Peru went from harboring around 3.5 million guano birds at the end of 2022 to barely 500,000 specimens today, a reduction of almost 85% in less than 3 years.

He added that the warming of the sea reduced the availability of anchovy and that outbreaks of avian flu aggravated the deterioration of populations. As a result, birds, marine mammals, and other species have not yet recovered their populations, which deteriorates the health of the ecosystem and can affect economic activities.

"The State must strengthen its conservation policies through recovery plans for the most vulnerable species, permanent scientific monitoring, early warning systems, marine fauna rescue and rehabilitation centers, and measures that reduce pressures on their habitats," he emphasized.

Jimpson Dávila noted that the decrease in guano birds also threatens the production of island guano, an input on which more than 13,000 producers of crops such as coffee, cocoa, and potatoes depend.

Likewise, the reduction of birds and marine mammals affects the tourist attraction of the Paracas National Reserve and the Guano Islands, Islets, and Puntas National Reserve System, where wildlife observation is one of the main reasons for visits and an important source of income for local economies.