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The International Energy Agency has sharply downgraded its outlook for global oil demand, warning that months of conflict centered on the Strait of Hormuz have fundamentally altered trade flows, drained inventories, and left the market facing a prolonged recovery even as the United States and Iran move toward a peace agreement.
In its June Oil Market Report released Wednesday, the IEA said global oil demand is now expected to decline by 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, a steep downgrade of 700,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast. The agency cited soaring fuel prices and disruptions to refined product availability as key drivers behind the decline.
"The impacts of nearly four months of disruptions spread across products and regions," the agency said, noting that global oil deliveries plunged by 5 mb/d year-over-year during the second quarter.
While demand is weakening, supply has also taken a significant hit. The IEA expects global oil production to fall by 3.9 mb/d this year to an average of 102.4 mb/d before rebounding sharply in 2027 as Gulf exports gradually recover and trade flows normalize.
Still, the agency cautioned that the newly announced interim agreement between the United States and Iran is unlikely to bring an immediate return to normal.
"A full recovery will not be immediate," the IEA said. "Mines will have to be removed from the main shipping lanes and supply chains will take time to normalise."
The comments underscore concerns already voiced across the maritime industry, where shipowners, insurers and security experts have warned that reopening the Strait of Hormuz will be a gradual and highly nuanced process. Although the interim agreement could lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports and reopen key shipping routes, important operational and political questions remain unresolved.
The IEA said oil flows through the Strait have already begun recovering. Shipments, aided by ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, have risen from a May low of 9.6 mb/d to around 12 mb/d in early June. However, those volumes remain well below pre-conflict levels.
The agency also highlighted the dramatic reshaping of global crude trade during the crisis. Exports from the Atlantic Basin to markets east of Suez surged by 3.5 mb/d as producers in the Americas stepped in to offset Gulf disruptions. At the same time, crude imports into China and Japan fell sharply, declining by a combined 6 mb/d, or about 40%.
Refining activity has suffered as well. Global refinery throughputs are expected to decline by 2 mb/d in 2026 to 82 mb/d, with particularly steep reductions across China, the Middle East, Eurasia and other Asian markets.
Meanwhile, oil inventories continue to shrink at an alarming pace.
The IEA said global observed oil stocks fell by 143 million barrels in May alone, equivalent to a draw of 4.6 mb/d. Since the conflict began, inventories have declined by an average of 3.8 mb/d, with OECD government reserves falling to their lowest level since December 1990 as countries accelerated emergency stock releases.
Despite the sharp drop in demand, those dwindling inventories remain a source of concern.
"Further declines in the coming months could still take global oil stocks to historic lows before the market balance shifts to surplus towards the end of the year," the report said.
Oil prices, however, have moved in the opposite direction.
North Sea Dated crude prices have fallen by more than $40 per barrel from their peak earlier this year to around $82 per barrel, driven by weaker demand and growing optimism that Washington and Tehran are moving toward a lasting agreement. ICE Brent futures were trading near $81 per barrel at the time of the report's publication, down $37 from their April highs.
Looking ahead, the IEA expects a dramatic reversal in market fundamentals. Global oil demand is forecast to rebound by 2 mb/d in 2027 to 105.3 mb/d, but supply is projected to surge by roughly 8 mb/d to more than 110 mb/d, potentially creating a sizable surplus.
That oversupply, the agency said, could provide countries with an opportunity to rebuild strategic reserves depleted during one of the most disruptive periods for global oil markets and maritime trade in decades.
Fuente: GCAPTAIN_NEWS
