• 3 min de lectura
• 3 min de lectura
The first few months of 2026 have seen notably volatility in EU Allowance (EUA) prices for carbon emissions. Driven largely by uncertainty around potential reforms to the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), EUA prices have dropped from around €90 to approximately €60/tCO2e ( KPI OceanConnect Market Pulse, Vol. 4 Issue 14). This decline in EUA prices helps to partially mitigate the impact of rising costs of conventional fuel, as a result of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
For shipowners, a €10 drop in EUA prices can be translated into approximately €32 in savings per metric tonne of fuel. Purchasing EUAs at lower price levels creates a clear financial opportunity, as allowances only expire when they are surrendered to cover verified carbon emissions. Timing EUA procurement effectively can significantly reduce both fuel-related and compliance costs. Current EUA price levels are significantly below the past 12-months average, highlighting the opportunity at hand.
Looking ahead, the scope of EU ETS will expand in 2026 from a requirement to surrender allowances to cover 70% of emissions to 100%. At the same time, the ETS is designed to tighten EUA supply over time. Securing EUAs at today’s lower price can, therefore, support long-term cost management, enhance budget certainty, and strengthen emissions planning in an increasingly carbon-constrained market.
As a market-based commodity, EUAs require a strategic purchasing approach. Knowing when and at what price to buy EUAs, and securing the required volumes, can be a significant commercial advantage for operators to avoid penalties, minimise the cost of emissions and ensure continued access to EU ports for their vessels.
At the same time, a fluctuating bunker fuel market, where conventional fuel costs are on the rise, makes alternatives like biofuel become more price competitive. The cost of B100 against LSMGO is now close to parity or in some cases has even been reported to trade below conventional gasoil levels. When factoring in EU ETS cost savings and FuelEU compliance benefits, biofuels are emerging as a more competitive fuel option than many operators expected.
In this evolving landscape, connecting the dots and delivering a holistic compliance and fuel strategy is becoming increasingly important. Whether trading spot or forward or setting up limit orders to take advantage of price movements, a structured approach can unlock significant value. This is where strong partnerships provide invaluable stability and clarity in the midst of constant change.
At KPI OceanConnect, we turn complexity into strategic opportunity. We support you in sourcing EUAs and developing tailored strategies aligned with your operational needs and realities of the market. Recognizing that EU ETS is part of a broader regulatory framework that includes FuelEU Maritime, we offer integrated guidance to support you. Our dedicated Alternative Fuels and Carbon Markets team is available to provide structured, tailored and comprehensive compliance advice for any volume, risk profile or timeline.
