Maersk's North America Market Update for November 2026 says regional supply chains are moving from an extended import peak into holiday execution and year-end replenishment. Capacity remains uneven across ocean services and inland locations. Fuel costs and customs developments shape year-end planning, with Mexico's Customs Law reform taking effect on January 1, 2027, and USD 6.35 per gallon as the national average diesel price reported on October 26.
Summary: North American supply chains are moving from an extended import peak into holiday execution and year-end replenishment. Capacity remains uneven across ocean services and inland locations, while fuel costs and customs developments are shaping year-end logistics planning. This month’s update examines conditions across major trade corridors and how businesses can prepare their network for early 2027.
06 Nov 2026
The ocean freight market remains varied across North America’s major trade lanes. Strong demand continues to support volumes on several routes, while capacity limitations, seasonal cargo movements, and weather-related disruptions are influencing booking availability and transit planning.
For shipment-specific updates, please review your booking and current sailing schedules on Maersk.com or speak with your Maersk representative directly.
AI-related goods now account for nearly 30% of all U.S. air import volumes by weight, reaching 29.7% in Q2 2026, up from 27.4% in Q1 2026. After holding at roughly 17–22% from 2022 through 2024, the share has climbed sharply from approximately 19% at the start of 2025, reflecting the rapid buildout of AI infrastructure and data center capacity across the country. While AI-related goods led to the increase, non-AI goods also saw solid demand based on the latest Q3 data. Global air freight demand excluding low-value goods grew by approximately 9% to 11% year over year, while North American imports increased approximately 20% in July and August. AI-related cargo led the increase, but demand for non-AI goods also remained solid.
AI is no longer just a software story. It is a physical supply chain story, built on semiconductors, servers, networking equipment, power and cooling systems, and data center infrastructure, much of it moving by air.
The effects reach well beyond technology shippers. As AI-related cargo takes up more premium capacity on key Asia–North America trade lanes, companies in automotive, industrial, healthcare, retail, and other industries may also face tighter capacity and greater rate volatility. AI is an important driver of air freight growth, but it isn't the only one. Fuel costs, trade policy changes, and geopolitical developments continue to affect capacity, routing, and transit times.
As peak season continues, shippers moving time-sensitive or high-value inventory should plan ahead:
Contact your Maersk representative to discuss your air freight plans for the season ahead. Contact your Maersk representative to discuss your air freight plans for the season ahead.
As import flows become less concentrated, inland performance continues to depend on local conditions. Elevated fuel costs, localized equipment constraints, and uneven cargo arrivals are affecting transportation planning.
North American ground freight markets continue to adjust to changing transportation demand and carrier capacity. While full truckload (FTL) providers remain focused mainly on network utilization, less-than-truckload (LTL) networks continue to prioritize service performance and yield management. Intermodal transportation remains an option for longer-haul freight where cost efficiency is a priority, while cross-border flows continue to reinforce demand for coordinated transportation solutions across the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
NOAA’s outlook for December 2026 to February 2027 favors wetter conditions across the southern U.S. and Eastern Seaboard. We recommend that customers review alternate routes and recovery arrangements for winter shipments on affected U.S. lanes and continuously monitor local forecasts as dispatch dates approach. We also advise using a combination of FTL, LTL, and intermodal after reviewing your lanes against the shipment characteristics, delivery requirements, handling needs, available capacity, and total transportation cost. For practical strategies on balancing mode selection, capacity, and cost through the winter rush, download our Peak Season Planning Guide.
Customer story: adidas x Maersk Ground Freight — For adidas’s Giant Trionda activation, 38 time-critical installations across North America required coordinated execution for the world’s largest soccer event of the year. Maersk brought transportation, warehousing, delivery, installation, and site management together under one accountable team—reducing handoffs and the coordination burden on adidas. See how adidas and Maersk brought the multi-city activation together.
First mile: Truck and chassis capacity is generally available and supply is stable, although localized shortages may emerge during periods of concentrated demand. Vessel bunching, elevated container volumes, and slower truck turns may contribute to longer dwell times at major inland hubs and are likely to tighten individual gateways. Houston and Los Angeles remain key markets with tighter drayage capacity. Shippers are advised to secure terminal appointments early, confirm holiday receiving hours, and monitor last-free-day and empty-return requirements. Allow additional recovery time at high-volume gateways.
Reefer: Seasonal pressure on the U.S. East Coast (particularly in the Northeast) is tightening refrigerated trucking availability. Constraints are expected to continue through November as citrus volumes increase. Maersk is sourcing alternative trucking capacity, particularly for reefer and time-sensitive shipments from the U.S. East Coast. Customers should allow additional inland lead time and share reefer, overweight, or urgent shipment requirements early.
Rail: Import volumes are expected to remain strong through Q4 2026. While railcar availability remains tight in selected markets, the overall intermodal network is expected to maintain fluidity. Some elevated dwell is expected during November as high volumes and weather-related vessel bunching affect cargo flows. Coordinate cargo recovery and empty returns promptly to support equipment availability.
Impact of fuel: According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the national average on-highway diesel price reached USD 6.35 per gallon (as reported on October 26). Regional price differences continue to affect transportation economics, particularly on the U.S. West Coast.
Canada: Inland transportation conditions remain stable with local drayage capacity available nationwide. However, weather-related disruptions in Asia may create uneven import volumes, congestion, and elevated dwell at Canadian West Coast gateways. For time-sensitive cargo, expedited rail service is available on request, subject to confirmation.
Surcharge changes: Effective November 1, 2026, our temporary fuel surcharge will be applicable at 24% of inland haulage on the Canadian drayage leg of the journey. Read further about the update here. Effective November 16, 2026, a separate Emergency Intermodal Fuel Surcharge will also be applicable to cargo moving between an inland rail ramp or container yard and an ocean terminal in the United States or Canada (including CY and SD cargo).
Please consult the official Maersk advisory for latest updates.
As peak season continues, factors such as elevated diesel costs, uneven container arrivals, and localized capacity constraints continue to affect the cost and timing of inland container movement. For Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs), these conditions reinforce the need to optimize truck movements, reduce unnecessary waiting and repositioning, secure equipment availability, and balance year-end replenishment with warehouse receiving capacity. Strategically located container depots can help bridge the gap between cargo availability at terminals and receiving capacity at warehouses.
Temporary storage, container pre-pulls, equipment inspection and repair, and coordinated pickup and return arrangements can help reduce terminal pressure, improve truck utilization, and protect delivery schedules. However, these arrangements should be evaluated against the total cost of cargo movement—including handling, trucking, storage, equipment availability, and potential demurrage or detention exposure. As businesses balance year-end replenishment with 2027 inventory planning, early coordination with depot providers can help identify available capacity and reduce unnecessary operational costs.
Learn more about depot strategy for peak-season resilience.
Warehousing operations in North America are entering November with a greater emphasis on capacity utilization, cost control, and peak season execution. According to CBRE’s U.S. Industrial & Logistics Market Report, warehouse vacancy in the U.S. was reported at 6.4% in Q3 2026 while leasing activity increased 27.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, September’s Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) recorded a warehousing capacity reading of 39.3—showing a contraction in available warehousing capacity. Together, these indicators suggest that available warehouse real estate does not necessarily translate into usable operational capacity.
Uneven demand is encouraging businesses to assess how existing space, inventory, transportation, and labor can support changing requirements without overcommitting their networks. Customers are advised to review peak performance weekly, identify usable whitespace, and evaluate insourced operations and 3PL options against utilization and total cost-to-serve. For 2027, test multiple demand scenarios before fixing capacity commitments and prioritize automation with measurable operational benefits. Maersk continues to support its customers through warehouse capacity assessments, network modeling, distribution-center optimization, and scalable warehousing solutions.
In the latest insights article from Fred Gilbert, Regional Head of NAM Contract Logistics Product Strategy & Growth Enablement, he explores how omnichannel demand, transportation costs, and resilience considerations are reshaping North American warehousing strategies.
Customs authorities across North America continue to introduce and clarify requirements affecting importers and cross-border supply chains. Businesses should review current documentation, tariff exposure, and regulatory developments to reduce compliance-related risks and identify available relief opportunities.
The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) continues to emphasize the accuracy of Importer of Record (IOR) data. Importers are encouraged to review their records and ensure that legal business names, tax identification numbers (TINs), addresses, and contact details are updated and correctly reflected in CBP Form 5106. CBP further notifies that incomplete or inaccurate importer information can result in an IOR number being voided—preventing its use to enter goods into the United States. Importers should coordinate with their customs brokers to identify discrepancies and update their records proactively. Review tariff classifications, country-of-origin declarations, and supporting shipment records to reduce compliance risks.
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) updated its guidance on October 8 about the United States Surtax Remission Order, clarifying provisions that may allow eligible businesses to reduce or recover surtaxes on qualifying goods. Eligible items used in manufacturing, processing, agricultural production, food and beverage packaging, and specific public-interest activities may qualify for relief. Applicable conditions and timelines vary, with some provisions covering imports before July 1, 2027. We advise shippers to review current and past entries against the provision that applies to your goods. Eligible claims generally must be submitted within two (2) years of importation and supported by appropriate documentation.
Businesses that do not qualify under existing provisions may also consider the exceptional remission request process administered by the Department of Finance, Canada, subject to its criteria and approval process. Maersk’s customs teams in Canada remain available to support shippers in understanding regulatory developments, assessing duty exposure, and navigating import/export compliance requirements.
The country introduced several customs and foreign trade developments during October that businesses should consider when planning cross-border operations.
The October 23 decree takes effect on January 1, 2027, with certain implementing provisions due by December 31, 2026. Customers are encouraged to consult their customs representative to review the changes and identify any adjustments needed to existing procedures, valuation records, shipment routing, and documentation requirements. Maersk’s customs teams can help review the implications for your cross-border supply chain.
As North American businesses prepare for 2027, evolving trade policies, transportation market fluctuations, and changing customer expectations are increasing the need for greater coordination across supply chain operations. Yet information often remains fragmented across carriers, warehouses, customs providers, and internal systems—making it difficult to identify disruptions early or understand downstream effects. This is encouraging shippers to move beyond traditional shipment visibility towards a more integrated operating model.
For businesses reviewing their supply chains ahead of 2027, evaluate where disconnected systems, delayed information, or fragmented responsibilities create unnecessary costs and slower responses. Then, identify opportunities for trusted data, automation, and closer partner collaboration to improve performance. Maersk’s Lead Logistics solutions support this by connecting logistics processes and enabling more coordinated execution across supply chain networks.
