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According to an analysis by Drewry, canceled sailings for the next five weeks will reach 79 blank sailings out of a total of 721 announced departures. On average, 89% of vessels are expected to start their voyages as scheduled.
The consultant indicated that between week 38 (September 14-20) and week 42 (October 12-18), the main routes; that is, Trans-Pacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-Northern Europe and Mediterranean, will accumulate a cancellation of 11% of the total departures.
Disruptions are concentrated on the eastbound trans-Pacific route (52%), followed by Asia-Europe/Mediterranean (33%), while the transatlantic route (15%) remains the least affected.
"Golden Week is becoming increasingly important, as shipping companies intensify capacity adjustments in a context of persistent divergence in freight rates across major trade routes," Drewry communicated.
"Announced blank sailings for weeks 38 to 41 have soared almost 56% in just one week, from 39 to 70, with further cancellations on routes with China before the holiday not ruled out," it added.
Despite this, the consultant pointed out that "the current level of canceled sailings remains manageable, the dizzying increase in announcements points to a more active capacity management phase ahead of Golden Week."
"How shipping companies readjust their services once factories close, along with how quickly demand recovers afterwards, could determine the balance between available capacity and freight rates on the main routes," it added.
