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Asian diesel exports to Africa reached their highest level in at least four and a half years in August, driven by African buyers seeking alternative supplies amid a drop in shipments from the Middle East, according to maritime tracking data and industry sources.
The opening for Asia's dispatches came after trade disruptions in the Middle East stemming from the conflict between the United States and Iran.
This was compounded by the blockade imposed by Yemeni Houthis on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and the attack on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, factors that reduced Saudi shipments to the African continent.
Asia, including India, will ship between 1.8 and 2 million metric tons (13.4 to 14.9 million barrels) of diesel to Africa this month, according to data from Kpler, Vortexa, and an industry source.
Meanwhile, diesel exports from the Middle East to Africa fell in August to between 600,000 and 800,000 tons (the lowest level in almost nine years, according to data from LSEG, Kpler, and the aforementioned source), due to persistent navigation risks through the Bab el-Mandeb and Ormuz straits.
Last year, nearly 50% of African imports came from the Middle East, with 40% of that volume corresponding to Saudi Arabia, according to Kpler figures.
Multiple trade sources added that reduced processing levels at some Saudi Aramco refineries, such as Jazan, further limited their fuel exports.
Shipments from the Jazan refinery to Africa fell to zero in August, compared to 163,000 tons recorded in July, according to Kpler data.
Traders sent more cargoes westward due to a wider east-west price differential—the difference between front-month ICE gasoil financial swaps and 10 ppm sulfur gasoil—during August.
The front-month east-west differential widened to minus $135 per ton, compared to minus $100 in July.
"Assuming Saudi tankers continue to avoid Bab el-Mandeb due to the Houthi threat, East Africa will have to continue absorbing barrels from Asia, as Europe will not give up volumes given the current ultra-negative east-west differential," said Alex Yap, senior oil products analyst at Energy Aspects.
"Improved supply in Asia, driven by recovering refinery processing and the resumption of Chinese exports, will keep the westward arbitrage viable in the short term," he added.
Diesel margins for Asian refiners averaged $66 per barrel in August, up from $61 in July, incentivizing plants to maximize production.
Meanwhile, the spot premium for benchmark diesel in Singapore moderated to a monthly low of about $4 per barrel due to increased spot availability.