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The peak shipping season at major U.S. container ports is proving longer than expected, with September now forecast to become the busiest month of the year for imports, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
September imports are forecast at 2.31 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), up 9.6% from a year ago and slightly above July's 2.3 million TEU.
That is a notable change from last month's outlook, when September was forecast at just 2.16 million TEU and May's 2.24 million TEU appeared likely to remain the high-water mark for 2026.
"We thought the peak season would be mostly behind us by now, but that's not the case," said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.
Gold said part of the shift reflects vessel delays caused by bad weather in China, along with some ships rerouting away from the Panama Canal amid concerns over potential drought conditions. But demand has also held up despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices.
"Consumers keep buying despite tariffs, inflation and high fuel prices, and retailers keep bringing in merchandise to meet demand," Gold said.
The latest numbers extend what has already been an unusual peak season.
Retailers rushed cargo into the country earlier this year to get ahead of tariff changes and supply chain uncertainty, pulling some of the traditional late-summer import surge into the spring and early summer. By August, it appeared the frontloading had largely run its course and volumes were headed lower.
Instead, imports have remained elevated.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million TEU in July, the latest month for which final figures are available. That was up 3.2% from June, although still down 3.9% from a year earlier.
August, which has yet to be finalized, is now estimated at 2.29 million TEU, down 1.3% year over year. Last month, Global Port Tracker had forecast August at 2.22 million TEU.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said imports have remained "buoyant" over the past three months despite higher tariffs, inflation and rising fuel prices related to the conflict in Iran.
"Retail sales remain strong and cargo is moving relatively smoothly, although there are reports of vessel delays and increased times required for cargo to move through the supply chain," Hackett said.
The September bump is still expected to give way to a slowdown later this fall.
October imports are forecast at 2.11 million TEU, up 1.7% from a year earlier, followed by 2 million TEU in November, down 0.9%. December is expected to edge back up to 2.03 million TEU, a 1.1% year-over-year increase.
For the full year, Global Port Tracker now expects imports at covered ports to reach 25.7 million TEU, up 1% from 25.4 million TEU last year. That is also slightly higher than last month's forecast of 25.5 million TEU.
The first half of 2026 totaled 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1% from the same period in 2025.
January 2027 is currently forecast at 2.09 million TEU, down 1% year over year.
The revised outlook adds another twist to a peak season that has been repeatedly reshaped by tariffs, geopolitical disruptions and changing shipping patterns.
