Typhoon Saudel Disrupts Chinese Ports and Affects Routes to Mexico

Typhoon Saudel opened a new front of pressure for supply chains that depend on China's main ports, particularly Shanghai and Ningbo, where operations were already experiencing delays, congestion, and modifications to maritime itineraries as a result of previous weather phenomena.

Saudel made landfall this Friday, August 28, in the eastern province of Zhejiang on two occasions, first around 08:05 in Taizhou and later near 09:10 in Wenzhou. The phenomenon caused heavy rains, evacuations, and disruptions in the region's transportation systems, including the temporary suspension of railway services in Zhejiang and various ferry operations, according to Reuters.

For maritime logistics, however, the impact takes on another dimension. Saudel did not find Chinese ports operating under normal conditions, but rather a network that had accumulated disruptions during August associated with an intense typhoon season, particularly Bavi and Dolphin.

Hapag-Lloyd is, so far, one of the shipping companies that has directly linked the deterioration of port operations with Saudel. In its Asia and Oceania operational update for week 35, published on August 26, the company reported longer waiting times in Chinese ports due to congestion after typhoons Bavi, Dolphin, and Saudel, in addition to anticipating closures in Shanghai and Ningbo between August 26 and 29.

The shipping company also reported various adjustments to its itineraries. Among them is the APL Mexico City, which would omit Ningbo and modify its rotation to call Shanghai first, while other vessels experienced Shanghai omissions or changes in the sequence of their calls due to vessel bunching and berth congestion.

The cumulative effect of weather phenomena had begun to be visible several weeks earlier. CMA CGM reported on August 13 that, after Typhoon Dolphin, average waiting times reached 10 days in Shanghai, five days in Ningbo, and three in Shekou. The situation led the shipping company to temporarily recommend using Ningbo instead of Shanghai for certain land flows and to apply contingency plans in its services.

Among the adjustments was precisely the MEX 1 service. CMA CGM then reported Shanghai omissions by various vessels, in addition to cancellations of calls in Xiamen and Shekou and the transfer of goods to other sailings. The situation shows how the impact on a port does not necessarily end with the reopening of terminals: the accumulation of vessels and containers can transfer delays to subsequent calls in a rotation.

A week later, on August 20, the shipping company continued to report repercussions from Dolphin. CMA CGM maintained contingency plans that included Shanghai and Shekou omissions, use of Hong Kong and Singapore for connections and transfer of goods to other services, while warning that waiting times remained high, especially in Shanghai.

Maersk had also warned since mid-August that weather conditions continued to influence maritime operations in Asia-Pacific. In its regional update on August 14, it noted that the typhoon season could cause temporary port restrictions, itinerary modifications, and delays, so it maintained contingency measures to preserve the continuity of its network.

On August 24, just days before Saudel's impact, Maersk announced that the Delos Wave 630N would omit Shanghai due to recent adverse weather conditions that were affecting its regional schedule. The decision sought to contain delays on subsequent calls of the vessel.

The company had also announced since early August adjustments to its Dragon service, including the modification of port windows in Ningbo, Hong Kong, and Yantian with the aim of improving itinerary reliability and reducing the effects of weather and operational disruptions at terminals.

Ocean Network Express (ONE), for its part, has not publicly linked the recent changes identified in its network with Saudel, although during August it also made modifications between Shanghai and Ningbo. On August 21, it announced a temporary change in its Pacific South 4 (PS4), whereby certain sailings would substitute Shanghai for Ningbo between September, while Shanghai export cargo would be handled by another service.

Mexico's exposure can be seen in another of ONE's routes. Its Asia Latin America Express 4 (AX4) service maintains a rotation that connects Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, and Busan with Ensenada, Lázaro Cárdenas, and Manzanillo before continuing to Callao, Posorja, and returning to Asia. That is, the two Chinese ports facing the greatest meteorological and operational pressures are directly integrated with three Mexican ports within that weekly network.

This does not mean that all shipments from China to Mexico will automatically suffer delays due to Saudel, nor that the modifications previously announced by shipping companies are a consequence of the new typhoon. But the succession of events increases the risk that alterations will spread throughout rotations through ETA changes, loss of berthing windows, port omissions, container re-stowage, and subsequent connections.

However, spot prices for maritime freight on the Asia-Mexico-South American West Coast route remained above seven thousand dollars per 40-foot container (FEU) until August 24, according to the weekly EAX index from Eternity Group Mexico.

As of the close of this information, a review of public communications from Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO Shipping Lines, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, and Evergreen allowed Hapag-Lloyd to be identified as having the most direct public reference to Saudel. On the websites and public notices consulted for COSCO, MSC, and Evergreen, no specific communications were found attributing operational impacts to the new typhoon, while the documents found for Maersk, CMA CGM, and ONE primarily reflect the meteorological disruptions and adjustments that preceded its arrival.

The distinction is important because part of the pressure currently observed in the Chinese maritime network cannot be attributed exclusively to Saudel. The new phenomenon adds to a sequence that had already forced shipping companies to reorganize calls and transfer cargo, while ports like Shanghai continued to try to absorb accumulated delays.

Saudel's arrival also occurs at a particularly sensitive time for international trade. September usually represents a relevant period for shipments from China before the National Day holidays and the so-called Golden Week in October, when industrial production and various services temporarily reduce their activity. If accumulated delays in Shanghai and Ningbo are slow to dissipate, importers and logistics operators could face less predictability in departure and arrival dates during the coming weeks.

Thus, the main logistical risk of the typhoon is not only in the hours during which a terminal remains closed. A one or two-day interruption can extend its consequences when vessels return simultaneously, terminals must absorb accumulated containers, and shipping companies seek to recover itineraries through rotation changes or blank sailings.

For Mexico, attention should now focus on the evolution of trans-Pacific services connecting Shanghai and Ningbo with Manzanillo, Lázaro Cárdenas, and Ensenada. It will be in the upcoming rotations that it can be observed whether the new meteorological episode is absorbed by the network or if Saudel deepens a chain of delays that has already begun to travel maritime routes from Asia.